2019 MLB Season Preview: NL Central
The 2018 NL Central may have been one of the toughest divisions in baseball, with four teams finishing above .500 for the season. The St. Louis Cardinals with 88 wins, alongside the Rays (90) and Mariners (89), were among teams that in most other years would have had enough wins to make the playoffs, but fell short in 2018. With the offseason that these teams had, the Central is shaping up to be one of the more competitive divisions in 2019.
Milwaukee Brewers
Key Question: Will the Brewers be able to maintain their 2018 momentum while fielding the same serious questions about their starting rotation?
Much like the A’s, the Brewers had a great season in spite of the fact that their starting rotation was a question for most of the year. Led by MVP Christian Yelich, who went on an absolute tear during the last month of the season, the Brewers caught and then surpassed the Cubs in the final week, going to Game 163. They rode their bullpen all the way to Game 7 against the defending NL champion Dodgers, but fell just short of their first World Series appearance since 1982.
The same questions the Brewers had in 2018 will pester them in 2019 as well. Will they be able to sign a front of the rotation starter to lead their pitching staff. They did end up trading for Gio Gonzalez from the Nationals, but he is gone via free agency now. The loss of closer Corey Knebel will hurt them, but it does give them an opportunity to hand those reigns over to Josh Hader, who was flat out unhittable at times in 2018.
If their offense continues to roll, the Brewers will do well in 2019 with their bullpen giving them an advantage in close games.
Chicago Cubs
Key Question: Will this be Joe Maddon’s final season in the Friendly Confines?
Joe Maddon has been… unconventional… during his tenure as a manager for both the Rays and the Cubs. As of right now, he is sitting in the final year of his contract, and, from what I have seen, there has been no talk of an extension yet. That puts a lot of pressure on the skipper who brought the North side of Chicago its first World Series title in over a century. Are the players still enjoying Maddon’s unusual style, or has it come time to part ways? In large part, that will be answered on the field this season.
While they could use some upgrades, the Cubs did very little in the offseason. Adding Daniel Descalso is not exactly the kind of move that the fan base wanted to see with Kris Bryant’s childhood friend Bryce Harper available as a free agent. However, big contracts in previous offseasons to Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish have made finances a bit of an issue for the Cubbies.
The Cubs are still a talented team, led by a good manager, and that is always a formula for success (not to mention a rotation featuring Lester, Hamels and a hopefully healthy Darvish). They will be in the hunt come September, but their lack of moves in the offseason may cost them a postseason birth.
St. Louis Cardinals
Key Question: How much of an impact will Goldschmidt have on the lineup, and will Ozuna/Fowler still be starting by the end of the season?
The Cardinals had a strange year in 2018. Their starting pitching was a question mark coming into the season, but newcomers Miles Mikolas (back from a stint in Japan) and rookie Jack Flaherty impressed. The bullpen became a little more stabilized following some big moves after the All Star break, and the emergence of Harrison Bader was a boost, once Tommy Pham was traded to the Rays. If they hadn’t fallen apart in the final week of the season, it’s possible that the Cardinals could have locked in a Wild Card spot.
So, what did they do this offseason? Traded for one of the best first basemen in the game in Paul Goldschmidt, and signed Andrew Miller with the hopes that he will actually be a free agent reliever that won’t play terribly (after the Greg Holland disaster and the Brett Cecil mediocrity, there is some question about what happens when good free agent relievers come to St. Louis).
Goldschmidt will have an immediate impact on the team. Not only is he a great hitter, but he is a Gold Glove caliber defender at first — something the tandem of Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter could not come close to competing with. Carpenter moves across the diamond to play third, which is actually the position he initially played before getting moved all over the place, but, hey, when you can hit, they find a spot for you. Which brings us to the Ozuna/Fowler situation. There is no question that both outfielders have not played up to expectations. Fowler was particularly bad when Matheny was the manager. He did play better after a midseason managerial change, but when you’re hitting .170, hopefully, there’s only one direction left to go.
The Cardinals, in spite of their unevenness, were a good team, but not a great one in 2018. The moves they made this offseason should be enough to push them back into the playoffs. Of course, everybody else made some significant moves as well, and the Central is going to be a difficult division.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Key Question: Will the Pirates be able to stay out of the cellar this season?
The Pirates traded away one of their best players and their best starting pitcher prior to the 2018 season, and then came out of the gate hot. For a while at least, it looked like the Pirates were going to be the biggest surprise in baseball. But, it’s a long season, and their holes finally caught up to them. They finished with 82 wins, so it’s not like they were awful. But that was only good enough for fourth place in the division. Will they be able to avoid the cellar in 2019?
In short, no. Don’t get me wrong, the Pirates aren’t your typical bottom of the division team, but everybody else improved this offseason (except for the Cubs, but I don’t see them suddenly losing 25+ more games than last year, they didn’t do much to improve, but they didn’t get worse either). They may still win 75 games, but so will everybody else.
Cincinnati Reds
Key Question: Did the Reds do enough to improve their pitching?
The Reds had an atrocious start to the 2018 season. By the end of the first week in May, the Reds were sitting with an 8–27 record, digging too big of a hole to climb out. However, the fact that they went on to only lose 95 games is a small moral victory. Of course, there’s no place in the box score for moral victories.
The biggest problem the Reds had was their pitching, and while nobody is impressed with their addition of Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, those three present significant upgrades over the starters that were going out three out of every five days. In acquiring Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, the Reds added a couple of veteran players to go alongside fellow veteran Joey Votto and a young roster. Now, it’s not like Kemp and Puig are top of the line players, but either one in a slump is still better than Billy Hamilton on a hot streak, so there is already some improvement.
If their offense can produce like it did in 2018, with the marginal improvements that were made to their pitching staff, there’s a good chance the Reds could be sniffing .500 in September. They aren’t going to win the division or a Wild Card spot, but they will see a 10–15 game improvement over 2018.
2019 Season Predictions
This is a difficult division to pick simply because there are three very good teams and two decent teams. None of them are terrible. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see every team in the division finish with over 75 wins. Of course, this is also problematic. One will win the division, but will they beat up on one another so much that none of the rest can claim a Wild Card spot? Maybe. Regardless, the top three will all be in contention deep into the season. I think the Brewers starting rotation finally catches up to them this season, and the Cardinals end up taking the division with the Brewers and Cubs fighting it out for a Wild Card spot with one of the East teams and one of the West teams.
